Friday, June 6, 2014

Walking Dead Predictions - Season 3

A while back, I started doing recaps of episodes of The Walking Dead as a way to force myself to put up more posts. While I do think it has slightly improved my writing, my downfall was the fact I chose to document what is by far the worst season of the show. About halfway through the season, I stopped wanting to relive the mediocrity of each episode by spending an hour or more writing a decent recap, so I stopped. I've since burned through all of season four (much, much improved) and have no plans to do further recaps.

However, I am a man of my word, so here are the promised results of my season-long predictions after each episode. Some are missing because I watched the next episode before recording a prediction for the previous one. I hope I don't have to mention it contains overt spoilers for season three, but be warned it includes details from season four as well.

S03E03
Prediction: At some point, the scientist and the Governor are going to be at serious odds with each other regarding what is morally right regarding walkers, their reanimation, and whether they can be helped.

Result: Milton eventually took a step back and started to see the Governor for what he was, helped in no small part by the latter's mental unraveling. As the season progressed, it became less about whether a sliver of a person survived in the mind of a walker and more about ultimate control of Woodbury, the prison, the people in them, the surrounding area, and everything else the Governor could see; he's the kind of guy who won't play Monopoly unless he can be the banker.

Andrea exposed Milton to information previously kept hidden by the Governor, and once he realized he was complicit in some pretty nasty business, he made his choice to help the prison in the hope of sparing everyone the Governor's wrath. We all know how that ended up.

Grade: B

S03E04
Prediction: Going bold here: the Governor will either be killed or allowed to die by Merle.

Result: So close, just had the roles reversed, and I will note this predication was made before Woodbury and the prison even openly knew about each other. The conflict between Merle and the Governor started early in the season, most notably their discussion while the Governor was hitting golf balls and Merle first asked, then told him he was going out after Daryl.

Merle was only useful to the Governor as long as he was unquestioningly loyal, and when he sensed there was a weak spot in that loyalty (Daryl), he I think Merle's clock started ticking. Fortunately for him, the Governor took the dramatic over the pragmatic, setting up the gladiatorial fight instead of simply putting a bullet in the back of his head. While the Governor did eventually kill Merle, it must be mentioned he only did so after Merle foiled the ambush at the meeting spot which could have resulted in the end of Rick's group. While Merle was a massive asshole, his last willful act was to sacrifice himself so his brother wouldn't be caught in a trap, so I got a little bit of the redemption I was hoping for.

Grade: C

S03E05
Prediction: The two camps will come to know of each other and eventually come down to a fight with Woodbury assaulting the prison.

Result: This wasn't terribly hard to guess since Woodbury had far greater offensive capabilities: many automatic rifles, grenade launchers, armored vehicles, more people, etc. It also makes more sense from a strategic perspective since they could effectively surround and wait out the prison occupants, whereas Rick's group couldn't hope to do the same to Woodbury. Instead, the Governor chose one exploratory outing in which he displayed his far-superior arsenal, but stopped for some reason even when he had the clear tactical advantage. He eventually came back for a full-on frontal assault which failed because he was overly confident, going in too far too fast.

Grade: A

S03E06
Prediction: Even though Michonne dismissed Andrea when she left Woodbury, she will return at some point to try to free her.

Result: I was actually hoping I would be wrong on this one. Once of the most interesting parts of the Game of Thrones show and Song of Ice and Fire books is no character is safe (side note: I've read all the books and savor seeing the horrified reactions of my friends/coworkers to things like Ned's trial and the Red Wedding). I love this because I love to be surprised and see the traditional assumptions of mass-media storytelling overturned. The farewell between Andrea and Michonne at Woodbury's gate was pure textbook television writing, setting up Michonne's return to help her friend. It was so obvious that I'm not sure it counts as foreshadowing.

Grade: A-

S03E08
Prediction: After witnessing the heads in the aquariums and Penny, the seeds of doubt have been planed in Andrea's mind, and she will eventually abandon the Governor and/or the current version of Woodbury.

Result: Andrea apologists will point out she returned to Woodbury at great personal risk to attempt to negotiate some sort of peace with the Governor or inform the people there of the actual state of things to sway them to drop their arms. Andrea detractors (I usually fall in this camp) will point out she could have effectively ended the conflict by killing the Governor in his sleep, but could not bring herself to do it. Yes, there would have been a power vacuum in Woodbury, and there's a chance Martinez would have stepped up and started where the Governor left off. But with the clout she built up while the Governor was going crazier, I think there's a decent chance she could have explained the real situation to the Woodbury townspeople and gotten them to at least leave Rick's group alone. Remember, these were the same people willing to take their chances on the road based on one minor assault and a handful of walkers inside the perimeter, so they probably would have jumped at any sort of negotiated peace.

While I very much enjoyed most of the Governor's story in season four (after he started talking, anyway), it must be mentioned that all of it could have been avoided if Andrea would have killed him in season three. Granted, Lilly and her daughters probably would have died when her father turned, but either Martinez or Pete would have stayed the leader of that group and likely would not have attempted the assault on the prison. I think we can all agree that the world would have been better (if a bit more boring) if Andrea had slit the Governor's throat after their rage-fuck.

Grade: B+

S03E09
Prediction: The Governor will pull a Stalin and start to think Andrea is becoming popular enough to be a threat to his leadership. As a result, he will either exile her or attempt to have her killed.

Result: Right result, wrong motivation. The Governor actually offers Andrea control of Woodbury, but since she doesn't accept, we won't know if it was a test, his way to temporarily placate the citizens, or some other ruse. Because of Milton's initial cowardice, the Governor is tipped off that Andrea is going to make a trip to the prison, assumedly with the aim of aiding Rick's group. Because the he sees everything through the "sociopath paranoid" lens, he sees this as an act of treason and threatens to exile her if she chooses to leave. He lets her back in the camp and his bed after she returns, but when she leaves the second time, he hunts her down and brings her back for torture, eventually leading to her death.

Grade: C-

S03E10
Prediction: The people of Woodbury will eventually revolt against their leadership.

Result: While it does eventually happen, it might be the shortest revolt on record since the Governor guns them all down almost immediately after the group decides taking the prison isn't worth the cost and vows to abandon the mission. I was hoping for more of an insurrection, leading to both Woodbury and Rick's group hunting down the Governor and a few of his soldiers.

Grade: C+

S03E11
Prediction: Rick will do something to retake full control of the group, either by redeeming himself in some way or getting dictatorial like at the end of season two.

Result: Rick gathers everyone and makes it clear he thinks they should fight for the prison, showing he has at least some form of leadership still in him. He stops chasing ghosts in the woods and goes out on a run with Carl and Michonne, finding and dealing with Morgan. He also acts as the representative at the summits with the Governor. It was more a culmination of all these small things (and the end of his "batshit insane" stage) than a singular event.

Grade: C-

S03E13
Prediction: Milton will aid Rick's group and will not survive past the showdown between the prison and Woodbury.

Result: Milton indirectly aids Rick's group by informing of Andrea of the Governor's plans to kill everyone at the prison regardless of the deal he proposed to Rick. He also convinces Andrea of the Governor's intent by showing her the makeshift torture chamber meant to house Michonne. The Governor gives Milton a chance at surviving a bit longer by killing Andrea, but when he refuses, the Governor stabs him, letting him die and eventually leading to him biting Andrea.

Grade: B

S03E14
Prediction: Tyrees's group will eventually side with Rick and becomes part of the recurring cast.

Result: After seeing the walker pits and talking with the Governor, Tyreese and Sasha start to see Woodbury for what it is and refuse to mount up for the assault on the prison, basically making them neutral. When Rick and the rest show up to tell them the result of the battle, they choose to board the bus back to the prison. It's worth noting this might not be the easiest decision: their last interaction with Rick was him yelling at imaginary people and threatening them at gunpoint, so staying at Woodbury might not have seemed too bad.

Grade: B

S03E15
Prediction: Rick's group will choos to fight. They will lose one main character, and my guess is Maggie since something good just happened to her.

Result: Got the right gender, but the wrong location. The writers had plans for Maggie in the next season, but Andrea had basically run her thematic purpose, so she was dispatched with a self-inflicted gunshot after being bitten by zombie Milton and patching things up with Michonne.

After some misdirection, we do find out that Rick and the group do stay and fight at the prison. Knowing the Governor is headstrong, they let the intruders get into the tombs, then set off the alarm and popped some smoke grenades. The walkers (drawn by the alarms and other noise) start the fight, and some strategically-placed gunners outside were enough to make the mostly-citizen Woodbury assault force turn tail and wait twenty minutes to be shot down by their psychopathic leader.

Grade: C

Overall Grade: B-

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